What You Will Learn :
- Describe the elements of the decision analysis process and the respective roles of management and the analysis team
- Express and interpret judgments about risks and uncertainties as probability distributions and popular statistics
- Develop and solve decision trees for value of information (VOI) problems
- Represent discrete risk events in Venn diagrams, probability trees, and joint probability tables
Good technical and business decisions are based on competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. About half the problems relate to exploration. The methods apply to R&D, risk management, and all capital investment decisions. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Monte Carlo simulation is experienced in detail in a hand-calculation exercise. Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. The mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves only common algebra. The emphasis is on practical techniques for immediate application.
For the June virtual session, course hours will be 08:00-12:00 US Central Daylight Time (GMT – 5:00) Monday-Friday for each of the two weeks.
For the September virtual session, course hours will be 08:00-12:00 Western Australia Time (GMT +8:00).
This is a fast-paced course and recommended for those with strong English listening skills. This course is intended as the prerequisite for the Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling course.
Who is this course for?
Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, team leaders, economists, and planners.